Carlisle Tire and Rubber, Inc., is considering expanding production to meet potential increases in the demand for one of its tire products. Carlisle’s alternatives are to construct a new plant, expand the existing plant, or do nothing in the short run. The market for this particular tire product may expand, remain stable, or contract. Carlisle’s marketing department estimates the probabilities of these market outcomes as 0.25, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively. The file P09_38.xlsx contains Carlisle’s estimated payoff (in dollars) table.
a. Use PrecisionTree to identify the strategy that maximizes this tire manufacturer’s expected profit.
b. Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting each of the monetary inputs vary one at a time plus or minus 10% from its base value, and summarize your findings. In response to which monetary inputs is the expected profit value most sensitive?
Ryan, Techware Incorporated is considering the introduction of two new software products to the market. In particular, the company has four options regarding these two proposed products: introduce neither product, introduce product 1 only, introduce product 2 only, or introduce both products. Research and development costs for products 1 and 2 are $180,000 and $150,000, respectively. Note that the first option entails no costs because research and development efforts have not yet begun. The success of these software products depends on the trend of the national economy in the coming year and on the consumers’ reaction to these products. The company’s revenues earned by introducing product 1 only, product 2 only, or both products in various states of the national economy are given in the file P09_40.xlsx. The probabilities of observing a strong, fair, or weak trend in the national economy in the coming year are assessed to be 0.30, 0.50, and 0.20, respectively.
a. Create a payoff table that specifies Techware’s net revenue (in dollars) for each possible decision and each outcome with respect to the trend in the national economy.
b. Use PrecisionTree to identify the strategy that maximizes Techware’s expected net revenue from the given marketing opportunities.
c. Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting each of the inputs vary one at a time plus or minus 25% from its base value, and summarize your findings. In response to which model inputs is the expected net revenue value most sensitive?